Despite a GOP tide, Buncombe sees Democratic upsets and major changes to the local political landscape. Here’s what it means.
Above: An election worker brings a data card containing a precinct’s results into the Buncombe County Board of Elections late Nov. 4. Photo by Bill Rhodes.
The polls close and from around the county, election workers bring in the results. Local campaigns, media, political wonks and interested citizens huddle around their computers, frantically clicking “refresh” on the official results page as tallies mount and the results of months of rallying, calls to vote and campaign cash.
For the third time in recent years, locals witnessed a schizophrenic election night. While Democrats around the country were shocked and mourning as Republicans gained control of the Senate and several key governorships, Buncombe saw Democrats take control of the local state house delegation and every local office where they ran a candidate.
This mirrored 2010, when Buncombe stayed Democratic blue while the GOP swept the state, and 2012, when Republicans saw major local gains despite Democrats having a good year nationally.
Even more this year, what happened last night reshaped a lot of the local political terrain, in a number of ways that are worth examining.
Upset time
For four years, since Rep. Tim Moffitt won the 116th state house district in 2010 the fight between the state house delegation and local government has loomed large as Asheville’s biggest political fight of the era. The battles have involved public protests, court battles over a bill seizing the city’s water system, last-minute legislation, public barbs and a tanker full of vitriol. This escalated in 2013, when former Buncombe County Commissioners Chair Nathan Ramsey won the 115th district. Redistricting turned the 116th into a safe Republican seat. The 114th, encompassing much of Asheville, became a safe Democratic district, and Rep. Susan Fisher ran unopposed there this year.
Moffitt, meanwhile, drew praise from Republicans as a rising star and even a potential speaker of the state house. But on election night Moffitt lost to Democrat Brian Turner and Ramsey fell to John Ager, two of Democrats’ only bright spots across the state, where Republicans largely held onto their seats in the legislature.
Moffitt shaking hands with Gov. Pat McCrory. Photo by Bill Rhodes.
Interestingly, Ramsey’s race with farmer and business owner John Ager was closer than Moffitt’s, despite his district being less friendly to Republicans than his fellow representative. However, despite the seemingly safe district Moffitt’s public fights with city leaders, his dismissive attitude even at friendly events and, frankly, the petty viciousness shown by some of his supporters helped to give him a more unfavorable reputation than your average Republican incumbent. Ramsey, who took a far more genial approach, took less of the public flak in those battles despite voting for and co-sponsoring some of the same legislation. Turner and Ager both benefitted from better-funded and supported campaigns than previous challengers.
Likely, changing voter demographics partly driven by Asheville’s high housing costs pushing more liberal voters out to previously conservative districts played a role, as the maps show both Turner and Ager drawing significant support from precincts on the edge of the city.
So like that, the defining conflict in local politics is gone. For years, local elected officials have pointed to the legislature as a massive wall in keeping them from pursuing. Now, while they’re unlikely to see much friendly legislation out of Raleigh, the impetus behind the barrage of bills they hated is gone, and Asheville’s government faces a whole new set of challenges closer to home.
For a more in-depth look at these particular races and their implications, see my analysis over at Ashvegas.
The DA rout
Last night also provided a bruising lesson in how media can, albeit understandably, perceive the dynamics of a race incorrectly. After Democratic District Attorney candidate Todd Williams made a notable gaffe at a debate, and independent candidate Ben Scales mounted a vigorous campaign, gathering nearly 8,000 signatures to get on the ballot in the first place. it looked like the race might be competitive. Observers like the Asheville Citizen-Times John Boyle declared that the race was now a competitive contest.
But in the end it wasn’t close. Not remotely. Williams crushed Scales 62 to 37 percent.
In retrospect, Williams’ organization showed its formidable turnout strength in the primary, where he similarly trounced longtime D.A. Ron Moore despite opposition from the entrenched incumbent. The bad blood ran deep enough that Moore shifted his support to Scales.
This should be a lesson to media. Yes, the gaffes and debates matter, especially at the local level, and they’re worth covering — and keeping in perspective — to better inform the electorate. But factors like campaign organization and party loyalty also matter in who finally takes the office, and sometimes trump the cut-and-thrust details we tend to focus on.
More importantly, we now have our first new D.A. in over two decades, at a time when law enforcement and the justice system are the subject of major local controversies. Going forward, it will be worth watching Williams’ tenure to see what changes — or doesn’t — under his leadership of debatably the most powerful office in the county brings.
Switching places
Republican hopes to take control of the Buncombe Commissioners also floundered. While the race in the county’s 2nd district (encompassing the same turf as Ramsey’s house seat) between Commissioner Ellen Frost and Republican Christina Merrill was close, it was nothing like their 2012 nailbiter. This time the margin was 513 votes, not 18.
So on the surface the dynamics of the commission — split 4-3 with the Democrats in control — haven’t substantially changed.
But on another level, a lot just changed. Over in District 3 (the same area as Moffit’s seat), Miranda DeBruhl handily beat Nancy Waldrop, the wife of current Commissioner David King, a more moderate Republican who lost in the GOP primary after DeBruhl attacked him for voting with the Democratic majority on a tax increase and other issues. Waldrop’s attempt to win the seat back as a supposedly sensible centrist failed, and the race serves notice that despite voters supposed preference for bipartisan middle-of-the-roaders, county Republicans will face electoral consequences for working with the Democrats.
This strengthens a shift that began two years ago when Republicans saw major gains on the board, thanks in part to a state-imposed district system. With King gone, expect a lot more 4-3 votes, more debates, more questioning of County Manager Wanda Greene’s proposals and Frost to hold more power than ever as a key swing vote. Issues like spending for nonprofits, taxes and almost any sort of money for social programs are now going to face a tight vote.
Interestingly, this means that Council and their county peers have now effectively switched places. For years, the city was the site of feuding officials, major public debates between different Council members and split votes. Now, however, while there are still plenty of divisions (hello, Asheville Police Department) Council and city staff largely agree and most votes are unanimous, while the board of commissioners is poised to become the site of more local government fights, with ensuing consequences for every resident of the county.
So after the signs are gone and those damn campaign ads fade into the background, the battles over who has power here — and how they use it — remain. Onto the next fight.
—
The Asheville Blade is entirely funded by its readers. If you like our work, donate directly to us on Patreon. Questions? Comments? Email us.